PROJECT ESTIMATES AND UNDERSTANDING SUCCESS

Organizations often doom projects to fail right from the start. Whether relatively small agile projects or massive megaprojects, a combination of poor estimating and poor understanding of estimates significantly contributes to failures. There are lots of clever tricks and complex calculations that enter the scene to deal with the potential of failure; some organizations even create a string of sacrificial “loss leader” projects to absorb the fallout from poor estimating practices. However, there is little writing that walks leaders through what estimates are and how to use them to establish project baselines and expectations – how to define success or failure in terms of the tolerances and techniques we prescribe to develop them.

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Dr. Philip D. Mann, PMP, PMI-RMP

Dr. Philip D. Mann brings 17 years of experience at the Federal Aviation Administration to the intersection of artificial intelligence, safety systems, and organizational risk management. As an internationally recognized expert in aviation operations and safety, Dr. Mann has appeared in major news outlets providing critical analysis on aviation incidents and safety protocols.

Currently affiliated with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Dr. Mann combines academic rigor with real-world operational expertise. With a PhD in Organization and Management, complemented by an MBA, MPA, and BS in Business Management, Dr. Mann bridges the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical implementation. Professional certifications include PMP and PMI-RMP credentials from the Project Management Institute.

Dr. Mann's forthcoming book, The SCAR Framework: A Systematic Approach to AI Decision-Making in Critical Systems, provides executives and safety professionals with a field-tested methodology for determining when and how to responsibly implement artificial intelligence in high-stakes environments. The framework—addressing Safety, Complexity, Accountability, and Resilience—emerged from extensive research in transportation, healthcare, defense, and public infrastructure sectors.

Specializing in project management, organizational behavior, and educational technologies, Dr. Mann consults with organizations navigating the complex landscape of digital transformation in safety-critical operations. Their work emphasizes evidence-based decision-making, risk quantification, and the human factors essential to the successful integration of technology.

When not analyzing safety systems or developing risk management strategies, Dr. Mann pursues science-based bodybuilding and is actively learning Latin American Spanish—disciplines that reinforce the same systematic approach to excellence that characterizes their professional work.

https://www.scarframework.com
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MANAGING PROJECTS AND MANAGING CHANGE: THE SOLUTION TO PM VS. OCM

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